The Effects of Expiring Pandemic Relief Measures on Coverage and Affordability: A Future Outlook

In light of the COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE), the federal government implemented temporary changes to routine Medicaid, CHIP, and Marketplace eligibility and enrollment operations to help stabilize insurance coverage. Medicaid and CHIP enrollment has grown to nearly 85 million individuals due largely to the continuous enrollment condition. Over 3 million new consumers have joined the Marketplace due partly to enhanced premium tax credits from the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARPA). However, ARPA’s enhanced and expanded subsidies are only authorized through the end of 2022. Additionally, Medicaid eligibility flexibilities and increased matching funds will terminate shortly after the PHE declaration ends, with Medicaid disenrollment potentially beginning as early as November 2022. As a result, the corresponding increases in coverage numbers could be temporary, leaving federal policymakers to decide whether and how to extend these policies.

This event outlined the various coverage-related elements at play over the next six to nine months, their tradeoffs, and how they may impact various stakeholders, including consumers, state leaders, and payers. Panelists will explore enrollment, risk pool, and premium forecasts, approaches that state and health plan leaders may take, as well as implications on overall costs to the system.


  • Scott Brockman, ASA, MAAA, Vice President, Marketplace Strategy, CareSource
  • Sara Collins, Ph.D., Vice President for Health Care Coverage and Access, Commonwealth Fund
  • Katie Keith, J.D., MPH, Director, Health Policy and the Law Initiative, O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law, Georgetown University Law Center
  • Kevin Patterson, MPA, MURP, Chief Executive Officer, Connect for Health Colorado
  • Elizabeth Wroe, J.D., Principal, Leavitt Partners
  • Sarah J. Dash, MPH, President and CEO, Alliance for Health Policy (moderator)

This event was made possible with support from the Commonwealth Fund.